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| Preliminary Estimation of the Transmission Risk of Novel Coronavirus in Hubei Province |
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| KeyWord:COVID-19, the basic reproduction number, two-stage mathematical model |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | Ping Bi | School of Mathematical Sciences, Key Laboratory of MEA(Ministry of Education) \& Shanghai Key Laboratory of PMMP, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China | | Jialiang Huang | School of Mathematical Sciences, Key Laboratory of MEA(Ministry of Education) \& Shanghai Key Laboratory of PMMP, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China | | Fang Li | School of Mathematical Sciences, Key Laboratory of MEA(Ministry of Education) \& Shanghai Key Laboratory of PMMP, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China | | Shujin Wu | Key Laboratory of Advanced Theory and Application in Statistics and Data Science-MOE, School of Statistics, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China |
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| Abstract: |
| A novel coronavirus(COVID-19) causes an outbreak of viral pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei province, China. In this paper, the deterministic compartmental model is given based on the clinical progression of the disease and the intervention measures implemented by the Chinese authorities. Simulations of the model are given to estimate the basic reproduction number for COVID-19 based on the daily reported cases from China CDC. The basic reproduction number of the model is used to assess the transmissibility of COVID-19. The results indicate that COVID-19 will be controlled at the end of March if there are no imported infections people into China. Then the first-level public health emergency response can be adjusted to the second-level or the higher-level response. |
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